Storm Watch

Hurricane season begins today in a region that has gone more than 40 years since experiencing a direct hit - and the wrath - of a major hurricane.

That history, and a number of challenges has Cameron County officials wondering if Brownsville and Rio Grande Valley are ready for what is expected to be an above average hurricane season.

``We sort of dodged the ball last year,'' said Johnny Cavazos, emergency management coordinator for Cameron County. ``Since Hurricane Dean (in 2007), we have been doing more than normal training and more than normal gearing up for what we believe is going to be an active hurricane season.''

It was Hurricane Dean, a Category 5 storm and the most powerful of the 2007 season, that stirred state officials to send a large contingent of buses from around the state to the Rio Grande Valley for possible evacuations of local residents. Dean, once projected to come ashore in South Texas, eventually crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and hit several hundred miles south of Brownsville.

A much closer call came in 2005 with Hurricane Emily - also a Category 5 storm - which came ashore less than 100 miles south of Brownsville near San Fernando, Tamps. Hurricanes Dean and Emily alerted local residents to the possibility of experiencing the sort of powerful storm that was suffered locally with Hurricane Beulah in 1967, which made a direct hit on Brownsville.

Now, facing another hurricane season, local officials face a number of questions and challenges.

How do they persuade an aging population, which weathered Hurricane Beulah in 1967, that they may not be so lucky the next time?

How do they convince a much larger population of undocumented immigrants that they won't be asked about their immigration status when evacuating the area?

What do they do to ensure that worn levees in the county will hold up when hit with heavy rains?

With parts of the county vulnerable to a storm surge, officials said it's more important than ever that residents realize just how much devastation the area could receive if struck by a strong hurricane this year.

``People relate to their experience or what they remember and sometimes what they remember isn't dead on,'' said Nezette Rydell, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Brownsville. ``That's why we push this every year. We have to be ready every year because we know it's going to come (another storm).''

``We haven't had a direct hit in 41 years,'' Rydell said. ``We will have one. Is this going to be the year? I can't say. No one can.''

Hurricane forecasters are predicting an above normal hurricane season with 12 to 16 named storms, with six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Key to the concerns about safety is the conditions of area levees. The International Boundary and Water Commission has been working to repair decades-old levees in the county, but many of the structures have experienced erosions. County Judge Carlos Cascos has deep concerns about area levees withstanding 12 to 15 inches of rain should a Category 4 or 5 hurricane strike the area.

"What are you going to do when you've got 90 or 100 mile an hour winds with the rain? What is it going to do?" Cascos said. "I don't believe our levees are in the condition where we are going to be OK."

Much of the county sits in low-lying areas, which translates into widespread flooding. Officials estimate that especially strong storm surge could travel some 25 to 30 miles inland.

An average tropical storm dumps four to five inches of rainfall per hour. Hurricane Beulah did much worse. The storm was a mighty rainmaker, dumping 20 or more inches of rain over the Valley and inland as far as Falfurrias. Forty-one years later, the Valley is a much more populous and urban region with farmland now turned into subdivisions and businesses.

Although officials encourage residents to evacuate should a major storm approach the area, they are resigned to the fact that many won't budge.

"There are a lot of people that are going to stay. There are lots of affluent, educated people that are going to stay put,'' Cascos said. ``I hope there is a way to convince them."

Officials' worry that this mindset will carry over to thousands of undocumented immigrants who will fear to evacuate following recent comments by the U.S. Border Patrol that agents will be checking their immigration status if they plan to board buses leaving the area.

The Border Patrol has since revised is initial statement, saying it will not "impede the safe and orderly evacuation of any member of the South Texas population."

And while the Border Patrol is charged with checking an individual's immigration status, county law enforcement officials are not, Cascos said. This is why county officials are encouraging residents who will need help evacuating the area to pre-register with 2-1-1. Registering with 2-1-1 will allow officials to know the addresses of people who need to be evacuated should a hurricane threaten the area.

"It is not our primary duty or responsibility or focus to ask for status of residency," Cascos said. "Our role is to evacuate anyone who needs to be evacuated. I think the safeguard of lives should be the priority of everybody, including the Border Patrol."