Calderon could be economic engine for border economy

New president will face split country

BY SARA INS CALDERN

The Brownsville Herald

July 16, 2006 When the dust settles from Mexicos turbulent presidential election, its likely that Felipe Caldern, a conservative from the National Action Party (PAN) will be declared the next president of Mexico.

That could mean money for Brownsville.

Continuing in the tradition of outgoing PAN incumbent President Vicente Foxs pro-business economic policies, Caldern has promised jobs, economic development and increased foreign investment.

What that means for Brownsville is that Mexicans will spend more money here one way or another. Mexicans will come to spend money on everything from real estate to shoes at the mall to ropa usada (used clothes), according to one international business observer.

Matamoros may not be a spectacular example of this economic boom, but the economy will see improvement, said Rafael Otero, professor of international business and economics at the school of business at the University of Texas at Brownsville and Texas Southmost College.

Economic growth is going to be superior with Felipe Caldern than in the six year term of President Fox, said Julio Almazn, president of the Matamoros Chamber of Commerce.

Also a business owner, Almazn said that not only will his meat distribution business benefit from the stability Calderns presidency is expected to generate, other businesses along the border will, too. He predicts foreign investment will grow here, benefiting businesses on both sides of the border and creating opportunities for new types of economic growth.

The economy of the border cant depend solely on the maquila sector, there has to be growth on many levels, said Manglio Murillo, director of communications for the PAN in Tamaulipas.

Social instability, international business, economic growth, immigration and continued stability will plague Mexico in the next few years, placing the countrys next president in what experts says is the unenviable position of governing an almost evenly split country.

A man with almost no experience in elected office will likely be running Mexico for the next six years. Little historical information aside from Calderns presidential campaign is available to predict what the fate of Mexico will be under his administration, but many predict its likely to be prosperous, especially for the industrialized northern border.

Calderns political life has consisted almost entirely of appointed positions, both within his political party, the PAN, and within different government agencies, most recently as energy secretary under President Fox. After a review by the countrys electoral body, Caldern is likely to be officially declared the countrys next president.

The Tamaulipas-Texas border region will be affected in a big way, primarily because of the maquiladora industry, which employs more than 1.2 million people in Mexico, but also because of Calderns focus on foreign investment.

Since the northern border is on the same page with Caldern politically his votes overwhelmingly came from northern Mexico the cooperation he will have from politicians here mean it is likely his policies will affect the area in a positive way.

Mexico overall would benefit the border along with it with Calderns policies, Otero said.

Hes probably the more in-tune with globalization. He would continue the open market policies, support NAFTA, for example. I would expect in three to six years, barring any unexpected events, the Mexican economy to grow close to or at 4 percent or above annually.

The main selling point of Calderns campaign was the creation of jobs, Murillo of the PAN said, because it is with the creation of jobs that a nation creates wealth. Foreign investment plays a crucial role to this end, he said, and that is why border cities like Matamoros will be key in the next six years. Growth will not only help Mexicans, he said, but Texans as well, by creating opportunity for both Mexicans and Americans in Mexico.

We want to share businesses and products, not human beings, Murillo said. We want Mexicans working on this side, creating wealth on this side, instead of sending them over there.

Sending them here may not be as necessary, according to UTB-TSCs Otero, given the probable future of Mexico. President Foxs six years have given Mexico an economic stability that will likely continue under Caldern, he said, combined with high oil prices and remittance levels, the economy has the chance to grow to support the workforce.

Immigration to the U.S. will not stop. That is a given, Otero said. What will decrease is the rate of increase; illegal immigrants will continue to come but probably at a lower rate.

If Caldern is not declared the winner of the election, the future might not be so bright, Otero said. Calderns election breaks with a series of left-leaning presidents in Latin America, such as Venezuelas Hugo Chvez and Brazils Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Since Mexico is viewed as a leader in Latin America, big policy changes would be in store throughout the continent and here in the United States.

Its certain that Caldern will try to foster good relations with this country, especially considering his initiative to drive foreign investment, but immigration might get in the way, said Gustavo Cano, director of the Transnationalism Research Project of the Mexico-North Research Network in Washington, D.C.

More and more people are becoming poor, Cano said. Low salaries trigger Mexicans to migrate. We need creative solutions to very deep problems for the Mexican little guy.

Calderns goal to push Mexican economic growth may not be enough if better salaries continue to push people north add the fact that Mexico is currently sharply divided between the rich and the poor and the potential for social unrest becomes very real, Cano said.

Totally divided between the rich and the poor, that was exactly the origin of the Mexican Revolution, Cano said, emphasizing the need for gentle diplomacy on Calderns part to keep the peace. We are practically going back to 1910.

Only one-third of the Mexican congress belongs to Calderns PAN party, meaning that 60 percent of the Congress is against him, Cano said. And paralleling the 2000 election in the U.S., half the electorate sent their votes not to the conservative Caldern, but to the liberal Lpez Obrador, which Cano said means Caldern will have to be a real statesmen to avoid social unrest in Mexico.

If (he) is sympathetic of using the army to try to control the streets, that will make things worse, Cano said.

He has all the odds against him in order to really take this country ahead.

sicalderon@brownsvilleherald.com