Island businesses cautiously optimistic about Spring Break

So far, this year's Spring Break is drawing more questions than answers.

Given a range of variables, including the down state of the economy, low gas prices and hotel availability on South Padre Island, businesses are cautiously optimistic about their prospects.

While the Island hopes for a good turnout, it's anticipating something significantly less.

"Promotions started last fall," said Dan Quandt, South Padre Island Convention and Visitors Bureau executive director. "But many students don't translate that into an action until now."

Quandt was describing a trend that nearly all Spring Break destinations are experiencing this year - a wait and see approach.

Against the backdrop of the worst recession in decades students are shopping around longer for deals, leaving many Spring Break destinations scrambling.

South Padre is no exception.

In a few days, Texas Week begins, typically the busiest period of the Spring Break season, and many hotels still have rooms available.

Interest commonly increases as Spring Break nears, but early estimates have 40,000 students visiting the Island compared to 60,000 a year ago.

"We still got plenty of rooms," said Daniel Salazar, general manager of the Isla Grande Beach Resort, formerly the Radisson Resort. "People are holding onto their money until the last minute, seeing what kind of deal they can get."

Three of the Island's larger hotels, including the Bahia Mar, South Padre Beach Resort and the Sheraton, remain closed after sustaining extensive damage by Hurricane Dolly.

Their loss could be Isla Grande Beach Resort's gain.

The hotel hires several hundred temporary workers to help manage the crowds and features one of the Island's biggest attractions , Coca Cola Beach, which pulls daily crowds between 12,000 and 18,000.

The hotel has condos that go for $465 per night and regular hotel rooms for $289. The average stay is three days, Salazar said.

"Spring Break will still be Spring Break," Salazar said, "Only a little different."

There was a time when South Padre was the Spring Break hot spot; however, interest has waned in recent years as destinations in Florida and Mexico have grown in popularity.

But escalating violence in Mexico, including a U.S. State Department warning about travel to Mexico, and the rising cost of air travel could have a greater number of Texas breakers looking at destinations closer to home.

Proximity to home as the deciding factor could also work against South Padre, especially if the South by Southwest Music and Media Conference and Festival in Austin draws record numbers of Central Texas college students this year.

Some businesses are expecting a brisk business in March despite the negative forecasts.

Chad Hart, president of Inertia Tours, couldn't say how others are preparing, but his business is nearly booked solid.

Inertia offers seven-night packages in condominiums, meals and a schedule of parties for $400 per person.

"Parents with money, student loans and part-time jobs," Hart said, "that's why Spring Break happens."

The economy hasn't changed those things, Hart added. Perhaps the hotels will suffer, in turn that could benefit condos.

"It doesn't take brains to see why people come here," Hart said. "Suffice it to say, I'm strong here."

Dan Stanton helps manage Louie's Backyard, a popular spot for Spring Break parties.

Students have the idea of a vacation ingrained, he said, but their decision-making process is capricious.

"The students kind of live in the present," he said. "I think most realize that if they wait five years they might have a job, so if they're going to do anything it has to be now."

It won't be as good as in years past, Stanton said of this year's holiday, but overall the feeling on the Island is optimistic.

Still, the future of South Padre Island Spring Break is in question, according to Stanton.

Opposing forces on the Island are in a locked battle over what sort of vacation spot the Island should ultimately become.

Like many popular vacation spots, South Padre has shed some of its image as a Spring Break location.

The process is natural, Stanton said, but those who would make the Island a retirement community are hurrying it along.

March isn't even among the top three busiest months of the year, according to Quandt.

"In a normal year, March is the fourth busiest," Quandt said. "July is actually twice as busy."

That does not diminish the importance of Spring Break. A conservative estimate from the Convention and Visitors Bureau is that the Island will generate $10 million in direct cash expenditures in March.

On the other hand the CVB will spend $150,000 in direct advertising, representing 11.1 percent of its total advertising budget.

Stanton has a simpler formula for determining the outcome of Spring Break.

The way he sees it success could come down to the most unpredictable of all factors - the weather.

"If the weather is good I think people will get in their car and drive to the beach," Stanton said.