Earlier hurricanes put Alex in perspective

Meteorologist Barry Goldsmith took a sleeping bag and snacks to work, prepared to ride out the storm at the National Weather Service headquarters in Brownsville. But when the path of Hurricane Alex shifted and passed south of the city, the potential for hurricane-force winds went with it.

Though Alex reached the level of a Category 2 hurricane this evening, its downpour was no more than expected and wind gusts considerably less.

It was looking like Goldsmith might get to go home.

“We are not quite out of the woods yet,” he said. Still, he seemed relieved.

“We were lucky,” he said. “If the hurricane had continued moving northwest as it had been this morning, it would have made landfall a lot farther north into Tamaulipas, and the core would have scraped us.”

Of course, damage has been done. Several parts of the city are seeing extensive flooding, and it could get worse. Hurricane Alex is expected to dump about 12 inches of rain in the city – and up to 20 inches in some areas – by Friday.

At least three tornadoes have touched down in the Rio Grande Valley, though no injuries have been reported. And on South Padre Island, the storm surge is expected to reach between 4 to 6 feet, which could damage buildings.

But the worst of the storm threat – the potential for hurricane-force winds – is  over, Goldsmith said.

Still, this is only “the first ballgame of the season,” Goldsmith said of the potential for hurricanes this year.

Indeed, the odds favor more hurricanes. The waters in the Gulf of Mexico have warmed up from the spring, the movement of the La Niña has created the low wind sheer necessary for hurricanes to form and the atmospheric patterns support such formation, Goldsmith explained.

“The odds are up for hurricanes,” he said. “We just happened to be on periphery of Number 1 one. We were fortunate it was not a direct hit.”

In fact, Brownsville only seems to be in a direct line about every 40 years, he said. The last three times it happened were in 1933, 1967 and 2008.

But many other storms have come close.

Hurricane history

Looking at the history puts most recent storms in perspective, Goldsmith says.

"All hurricanes are bad – it is just a matter of which are much worse," he says. "Looking back gives you a less biased viewpoint of the reality of what could happen in the area."

Since 1865, 63 hurricanes have struck the Texas coast, 12 of which have been major storms, according to the national weather agency.

For many Brownsville residents, the most memorable are Hurricane Beulah, which struck in 1967 just north of where the Rio Grande flows into Mexico, and Hurricane Dolly, which in 2008 made landfall near South Padre Island.

For longtime residents of the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas, Beulah was the big one, affecting people from Cameron to Zapata County, according to the National Weather Service.

The Brownsville Airport recorded hurricane-force winds for some eight hours straight, with a peak at 109 mph – before its measuring device was bent and became inoperable. One ship in port even reported winds of 136 mph.

Across South Padre Island and into Port Isabel, Beulah’s storm surge reached 5 to 8 feet, according to NWS. And some homes in Harlingen were flooded up to their rooftops.

Ruben Garza, a truck driver, was living in Brownsville during Hurricane Beulah and remembers the disaster it left behind. It puts Hurricane Alex into perspective, he says.

“Furniture was scattered everywhere,” he remembers. “Palm trees were bent. No, I am not afraid of this one, but I do like to always be prepared.”